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    王鹏, 朱呈浩. 2021年黄河秋汛洪水调度方案预演及效果评价[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2023, 33(4): 37-41. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022206
    引用本文: 王鹏, 朱呈浩. 2021年黄河秋汛洪水调度方案预演及效果评价[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2023, 33(4): 37-41. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022206
    WANG Peng, ZHU Chenghao. Rehearsal and effect evaluation of the flood regulating scheme for the Yellow River in autumn in 2021[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2023, 33(4): 37-41. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022206
    Citation: WANG Peng, ZHU Chenghao. Rehearsal and effect evaluation of the flood regulating scheme for the Yellow River in autumn in 2021[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2023, 33(4): 37-41. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2022206

    2021年黄河秋汛洪水调度方案预演及效果评价

    Rehearsal and effect evaluation of the flood regulating scheme for the Yellow River in autumn in 2021

    • 摘要: 2021年黄河中下游遭遇罕见秋汛洪水, 期间流域干支流水工程联合防洪调度发挥了关键作用。 在调度过程中, 既要算好洪水总量, 又要实现干支流流量过程的精准对接, 是一个复杂的决策过程。 为确保调度方案的科学性和准确性, 提出 “先细后粗、 先支流后干流”的预演思路, 采用逐时段实时修正的方法, 实现了科学精细调度黄河中游干支流水库群的目标。 对预演效果评价显示, 秋汛洪水期间小浪底水库水位预演结果与实测值平均误差0.003 m, 各支流水库平均误差不超0.13 m; 花园口站流量预演结果与实测值平均误差23 m3/s, 调度目标与实测值平均误差32 m3/s。 评价结果表明黄河中游干支流水库群精细调度技术明显提升, 为本次秋汛洪水防御提供了重要支撑。

       

      Abstract: In 2021, the middle and lower reaches of the Yellow River encountered rare autumn floods, during which the joint regulating operation of water projects from main channel and tributary rivers of Yellow River Basin played a key role. In the regulating process, it is a complex decision-making process to not only calculate the total flood volume, but also realize the precise connection of the main and tributary flow processes. In order to ensure the accuracy of the regulating scheme, the Yellow River Commission made great efforts to embroider and proposed the rehearsal idea of "first fine before coarse,and first tributaries before main stream", and adopted the method of real-time correction by time period, realizing scientific and fine scheduling of the Yellow River water projects. The rehearsal results show that during the autumn flood period, the average error between the water level prediction results and the measured value of Xiaolangdi Reservoir is 0.003 m, and the average error of each tributary's reservoir does not exceed 0.13 m; the average error between the flow prediction results and the measured value of Huayuankou Station is 23 m3/s, and the average error between the scheduling targets and the measured value is 32 m3/s. Results show that the fine regulating technology of the main-stream and tributary reservoirs in the middle reaches of the Yellow River has been significantly improved, which provides an important support for the flood prevention in this autumn flood.

       

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