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    孙奇石, 顾朝军. 1960—2016年三峡库区降水时空变化特征研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2024, 34(12): 101-107. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023424
    引用本文: 孙奇石, 顾朝军. 1960—2016年三峡库区降水时空变化特征研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2024, 34(12): 101-107. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023424
    SUN Qishi, GU Chaojun. Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1960 to 2016[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2024, 34(12): 101-107. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023424
    Citation: SUN Qishi, GU Chaojun. Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1960 to 2016[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2024, 34(12): 101-107. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2023424

    1960—2016年三峡库区降水时空变化特征研究

    Spatio-temporal variation of precipitation in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area from 1960 to 2016

    • 摘要: 全球变暖背景下,区域极端降水变化明显,对生态环境产生重要影响。利用三峡库区及周边23个气象站逐日降水量数据,采用线性倾向率、Mann-Kendall(MK)趋势检验和空间插值法研究了库区11个极端降水指标变化特征。结果表明:三峡库区11个极端降水指标中有6个指标具有下降倾向,分别为:PRCPTOT(年降水量)、CDD(最长连续无雨日数)、CWD(最长连续有雨日数)、R10(日降水量≥10 mm的日数)、R20(日降水量≥20 mm的日数)、RX5day(最大连续5 d降水量),其中CWD呈显著的下降趋势,下降速率为0.20 d/(10 a);5个指标呈不显著上升趋势,分别为:R50(日降水量≥50 mm的日数)、R95p(日降水量≥95%分位数的总降水量)、R99p(日降水量≥99%分位数的总降水量)、RX1day(最大连续1 d降水量)和SDⅡ(全年平均降水强度)。空间上,PRCPTOTR10、R20、R50和RX5day呈中部大、西南和东北部小的分布格局;CDDSDⅡ呈自西南向东北部逐渐增大趋势,CWDR95p、R99p和RX1day空间格局特征不明显。与1960—2003年相比,2004—2016年R50、R95p、R99p、RX1day、RX5day和SDⅡ等极端降水指标变化幅度大于其他降水指标。

       

      Abstract: Under the background of global warming, regional precipitation changes obviously, which has an important impact on the ecological environment. this paper investigated the change characteristics of 11 precipitation indexes by using linear trend rate, MK trend test and spatial interpolation methods, based on the daily precipitation data of 23 weather stations in the Three Gorges Reservoir area and its surrounding areas. The results showed that six precipitation indexes (PRCPTOT, CDD, CWD, R10, R20 and RX5day) in the Three Gorges Reservoir area showed a decreasing trend, and CWD showed a significant decreasing trend with a decreasing rate of 0.20 d/(10 a). Five precipitation indexes (R50, R95p, R99p, RX1day and SDⅡ) showed no significant upward trend. The spatial distribution pattern of PRCPTOT, R10, R20, R50 and RX5day showed a high value in the central part and low in the southwest and northeast part. CDD and SDⅡ gradually increased from southwest to northeast, while the spatial pattern of CWD, R95p, R99p and RX1day was not obvious. Compared with 1960-2003, the variation range in extreme precipitation indexes such as R50, R95p, R99p, RX1day, RX5day and SDⅡ from 2004 to 2016 was greater than that of the other indexes.

       

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