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    黄萍,郑宇,许小华,等. 江西省洪涝灾害风险评估县域尺度等级划分研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2024,34(12):61−67. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024137
    引用本文: 黄萍,郑宇,许小华,等. 江西省洪涝灾害风险评估县域尺度等级划分研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2024,34(12):61−67. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024137
    HUANG Ping,ZHENG Yu,XU Xiaohua,et al.Assessment and classification of flood disaster risk in Jiangxi Province at the county scale[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2024,34(12):61−67. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024137
    Citation: HUANG Ping,ZHENG Yu,XU Xiaohua,et al.Assessment and classification of flood disaster risk in Jiangxi Province at the county scale[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2024,34(12):61−67. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024137

    江西省洪涝灾害风险评估县域尺度等级划分研究

    Assessment and classification of flood disaster risk in Jiangxi Province at the county scale

    • 摘要: 科学合理的洪涝灾害风险评估与等级划分是洪水风险评估与管理的一项重要内容,可以为洪水预警和防灾减灾工作提供依据。综合考虑洪涝灾害致灾因子危险性、孕灾环境敏感性、承灾体暴露性、防洪能力等因素,选取13个评价指标构建综合评价指数体系,采用层级分析法和经验系数法赋予各指标权重,运用加权综合法,借助空间分析技术实现江西省洪涝灾害风险等级划分。结果表明:江西省洪涝灾害高发地区主要集中在江西省东北部、赣州市大部和九江市、宜春市、抚州市局部等地区,由于上述地区河网密布,遭遇强降雨时,山洪灾害易发多发,易引发洪涝灾害;低风险区域主要集中在江西省大部分中心城区,中小河流、中小水库数量不多,山洪危险点少,区域防灾能力强,不容易出现洪涝灾害。上述结果与历史洪涝灾情数据对比验证结果表明江西省洪涝风险分布与洪涝灾情损失分布基本吻合。

       

      Abstract: Risk assessment and classification of flood disasters are important contents of flood assessment and management. Reasonable flood disaster risk assessment can provide scientific basis for early warning and disaster prevention and reduction of flood disasters. This paper comprehensively considered the risk factors of flood disasters, the sensitivity of disaster prone environment, the exposure of disaster bearing bodies, and the ability of flood control, and other factors. A total of 13 assessment indexes were selected to build a flood disaster risk assessment indicators, establishing an indicators for flood disaster risk assessment. Using AHP and empirical coefficient method to give weight to each index, using weighted synthesis method to construct comprehensive evaluation indicators, this study classified flood disaster risk in Jiangxi Province by means of spatial analysis technology. The result showed that the high risk areas of flood disasters in Jiangxi Province were mainly concentrated in the northeast of Jiangxi, most of Ganzhou City, Jiujiang City, Yichun City, and some parts of Fuzhou City. Due to the dense river network in the above areas, flash floods were prone to occur in case of heavy rainfall, which was very prone to cause flood disasters. Low risk areas were mainly concentrated in most central urban areas of Jiangxi Province. Due to the strong disaster prevention ability in this region, there were not many small and medium-sized rivers and reservoirs, and there were few flash flood dangerous points, so it was not prone to have flood disasters. The above results, compared with historical flood disaster data, indicate that the distribution of flood risk in Jiangxi Province is basically consistent with the distribution of flood disaster losses.

       

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