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    程志远,徐迎春,周婷,等. 基于有无对比法的蒙洼蓄洪工程农业生产效益分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(6):57−60,70. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024163
    引用本文: 程志远,徐迎春,周婷,等. 基于有无对比法的蒙洼蓄洪工程农业生产效益分析[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(6):57−60,70. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024163
    CHENG Zhiyuan,XU Yingchun,ZHOU Ting,et al.Analysis of agricultural benefit analysis of Mengwa Flood Detention Project based on counterfactual method[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(6):57−60,70. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024163
    Citation: CHENG Zhiyuan,XU Yingchun,ZHOU Ting,et al.Analysis of agricultural benefit analysis of Mengwa Flood Detention Project based on counterfactual method[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(6):57−60,70. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024163

    基于有无对比法的蒙洼蓄洪工程农业生产效益分析

    Analysis of agricultural benefit analysis of Mengwa Flood Detention Project based on counterfactual method

    • 摘要: 蒙洼蓄洪工程是淮河中游淮河防洪体系的重要组成部分,也是我国运用最频繁的蓄洪区之一,其建成运行对淮河流域防洪形势及蓄洪区内农业生产效益均产生了深刻改变。系统介绍了蒙洼蓄洪工程概况、启用条件和建成72年以来的运用历程;结合文献记载和实测资料,采用有无对比法对1952—2023年蒙洼蓄洪工程的农业生产效益进行了测算。结果表明,在蒙洼蓄洪工程建成运行情景下,蓄洪区内淹没概率大大降低,72年间午季和秋季总收获次数由72次增加至129次,累计收获面积增加107.45万hm2,累计粮食产量增加60亿kg,累计土地利用收益由82亿元增加至220亿元;最后,总结了蒙洼蓄洪区建设运用的启示,以期为淮河及其他流域蓄滞洪区建设管理提供重要的参考价值。

       

      Abstract: The Mengwa Flood Detention Project is an important component of the flood control system in the middle reaches of the Huai River, and is also one of the most frequently utilized flood detention areas in China. Its construction and operation have led to significant transformations in flood control pattern and agricultural productivity. A comprehensive overview of the Mengwa Flood Detention Project, operational conditions, and its 72-year operation history is presented. Literature records and empirical data are employed to evaluate the agricultural benefits of theMengwa Flood Detention Area during the period from 1952 to 2023 based on counterfactual method. Results indicate that a substantial reduction in the occurrence of flooding with the construction of the Mengwa Flood Detention Project. Over the 72-year period, the total harvest counts in agriculture increased from 72 times to 129 times. The cumulative harvested area expanded by 1074500 hm2, resulting in an additional 6 billion kilograms of grain production. The cumulative land use benefits escalated from 8.2 billion yuan to 22 billion yuan.Finally, the inspiration from the construction and operation of the Mengwa Flood Detention Project is summarized, in order to provide important reference value for the construction and management of flood detention areas in the Huai River and other river basins.

       

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