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    张晚祺,翁朝晖,何小花,等. 洪水风险区划中综合风险度的确定方法探讨[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(5):16−21. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024215
    引用本文: 张晚祺,翁朝晖,何小花,等. 洪水风险区划中综合风险度的确定方法探讨[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(5):16−21. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024215
    ZHANG Wanqi,WENG Zhaohui,HE Xiaohua,et al.Discussion on the determination method of comprehensive risk degree in flood risk zoning[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(5):16−21. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024215
    Citation: ZHANG Wanqi,WENG Zhaohui,HE Xiaohua,et al.Discussion on the determination method of comprehensive risk degree in flood risk zoning[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(5):16−21. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024215

    洪水风险区划中综合风险度的确定方法探讨

    Discussion on the determination method of comprehensive risk degree in flood risk zoning

    • 摘要: 在进行水旱灾害风险普查时,需依据综合风险度对洪水风险区域进行划分。然而,普查过程中存在多项挑战:对于多河流共存的排区,难以独立计算各河流的洪水风险要素;河道地形图及横断面数据的缺失,阻碍了基于12.5 m数字高程模型(Digital Elevation Model,DEM)的水力学计算及产流系数法参数的确定。湖北省探索了确定综合风险度的方法:①对于汇流边界不明确且依赖泵站提排的平原区,基于水系结构和产汇流特性,将区域划分为多个汇水单元,并根据不同重现期洪水的风险要素计算结果确定综合风险度。②在缺乏地形资料的山地洪水威胁区,通过收集河道测量资料、中小河流治理资料、山洪灾害评价资料,进行河道横断面测量,利用洪峰流量—水位外延法计算不同频率洪水的淹没水深和范围,以最大淹没水深作为当量水深计算综合风险度。③在山地洪水威胁区的坡面区和局地洪水威胁区,产流系数法计算综合风险度时,修正系数应结合地形和洪水灾害易发程度确定。对于山洪灾害频发区域,建议在合理范围内选取较大值。产流系数应考虑最不利情况下的致灾场次降雨产流系数,并结合山洪灾害调查评价及防御预案,分析易发生山地洪水时的临界雨量与设计雨量。研究成果丰富了水旱灾害普查的方法,促进了普查工作的顺利进行。

       

      Abstract: When conducting a flood and drought disaster risk survey, it is necessary to divide the flood risk areas based on the comprehensive risk level. However, there are multiple challenges in the census process: for drainage areas where multiple rivers coexist, it is difficult to independently calculate the flood risk factors of each river; The lack of river topographic maps and cross-sectional data hinders hydraulic calculations based on the 12.5 m DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and the determination of parameters for the runoff coefficient method. Hubei Province has explored the method of determining the comprehensive risk level: ① For plain areas with unclear confluence boundaries and relying on pumping stations for drainage, based on the water system structure and runoff characteristics, the area is divided into multiple confluence units, and the comprehensive risk level is determined by calculating the risk factors of floods with different recurrence periods. ② In mountainous flood threat areas lacking terrain data, by collecting river measurement data, small and medium-sized river management data, mountain flood disaster assessment data, or conducting river cross-section measurements, the flood peak flow water level extension method is used to calculate the inundation depth and range of floods of different frequencies, and the maximum inundation depth is used as the equivalent depth to calculate the comprehensive risk level. ③ When using the runoff coefficient method to calculate the comprehensive risk level in the slope area of mountainous flood threat zones and local flood threat area, the correction factor should be determined based on the terrain and the susceptibility to flood disasters. For areas with frequent mountain flood disasters, it is recommended to choose a larger value within a reasonable range. The runoff coefficient should take into account the worst-case scenario of rainfall runoff coefficient in disaster prone areas, and combine it with the investigation and evaluation of mountain flood disasters and defense plans to analyze the critical rainfall and design value rainfall when mountain floods are prone to occur. These achievements have enriched the methodological system of flood and drought disaster census and promoted the smooth progress of the census work.

       

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