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    仇欣悦,孙晓文,代金汕,等. 气候变化背景下江苏省年降水量时空演变特征与趋势[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(5):27−34. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024222
    引用本文: 仇欣悦,孙晓文,代金汕,等. 气候变化背景下江苏省年降水量时空演变特征与趋势[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(5):27−34. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024222
    QIU Xinyue,SUN Xiaowen,DAI Jinshan,et al.Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and trend of annual precipitation in Jiangsu Province under the background of climate change[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(5):27−34. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024222
    Citation: QIU Xinyue,SUN Xiaowen,DAI Jinshan,et al.Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and trend of annual precipitation in Jiangsu Province under the background of climate change[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(5):27−34. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024222

    气候变化背景下江苏省年降水量时空演变特征与趋势

    Spatial-temporal evolution characteristics and trend of annual precipitation in Jiangsu Province under the background of climate change

    • 摘要: 降水时空演变特征与发展趋势是区域水旱灾害分析、水资源规划和农业用水管理的重要依据。根据1961—2020年江苏省及邻近省份22个测站的长系列年降水量资料,以站域、片域、省域为空间尺度,以10 a、30 a、60 a为时间尺度,采用空间插值、累计距平、水文统计、滑动平均、Mann-Kendall(M-K)检验等方法,分析气候变化背景下全省不同时空尺度年降水量分布特征与变化趋势。结果表明:不同时间尺度的多年平均降水量等值线图均显示全省年降水量空间分布不均,基本符合南多北少、东多西少的分布规律,且苏中3市降水量更接近苏南5市。苏北北部逐年降水量总体呈不显著减少趋势;苏北南部、苏中与苏南总体上均呈增加趋势;从全省平均来看,1961—2020年降水量总体呈上升趋势;年降水量突变点出现时间具有地区性。另外,相对于前30 a系列,后30 a系列统计参数与60 a系列更加接近、代表性更强。研究结论对气候变化背景下全省水文年型分析、水旱灾害预测、水资源规划与用水管理具有指导意义。

       

      Abstract: The spatial and temporal evolution characteristics and development trend of precipitation are important basis for regional flood and drought disaster analysis, water resources planning and agricultural water management. According to the long annual precipitation data of 22 stations in Jiangsu and neighboring provinces from 1961 to 2020, the distribution characteristics and trends of annual precipitation at different spatial and temporal scales under the background of climate change were analyzed by several methods of spatial interpolation, cumulative anomaly, hydrological statistics, moving average and Mann-Kendall test, with station, regional and provincial domains as spatial scales and 10 years, 30 years and 60 years as time scales. The results show that the multi-year average precipitation contour maps of different time scales indicate that the spatial distribution of precipitation in Jiangsu Province is uneven, which is basically in line with the distribution law of more in the south and less in the north, more in the east and less in the west, and the three cities in Central Jiangsu are closer to the five cities in South Jiangsu. The annual precipitation in the northern part of North Jiangsu showed an insignificant decreasing trend; the southern part of North Jiangsu, Central Jiangsu and South Jiangsu overall showed an increasing trend. From the average precipitation of all stations, the annual precipitation from 1961 to 2020 showed an overall upward trend; the occurrence time of annual precipitation mutation point is regional. In addition, compared with the previous 30-year series, the statistical parameters of the latter 30-year series are closer and more representative to the 60-year series. The research conclusions have guiding significance for hydrological year patterns analysis, flood and drought disaster prediction, water resources planning and water management in Jiangsu Province under the background of climate change.

       

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