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    桂大洪. 湖北襄阳市汉江流域2023年秋汛洪水预报复盘分析及思考[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(6): 37-42. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024320
    引用本文: 桂大洪. 湖北襄阳市汉江流域2023年秋汛洪水预报复盘分析及思考[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(6): 37-42. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024320
    GUI Dahong. Review analysis and reflections on the 2023 autumn flood forecasting in the Hanjiang River Basin in Xiangyang City, Hubei Province[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(6): 37-42. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024320
    Citation: GUI Dahong. Review analysis and reflections on the 2023 autumn flood forecasting in the Hanjiang River Basin in Xiangyang City, Hubei Province[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(6): 37-42. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024320

    湖北襄阳市汉江流域2023年秋汛洪水预报复盘分析及思考

    Review analysis and reflections on the 2023 autumn flood forecasting in the Hanjiang River Basin in Xiangyang City, Hubei Province

    • 摘要: 从雨情、水情、水文监测预报3方面着手分析,采用API模型及合成流量法,对湖北襄阳市汉江流域2023年秋汛开展洪水预报复盘。总结了襄阳市汉江流域洪水构成及流量叠加合成原理、洪水峰现时间确定方法、襄阳站洪峰水位推求方法。针对复盘分析中发现的流域区间径流预报误差较大、水利工程调度信息不足、水位流量关系紊乱等问题进行梳理。提出了要掌握襄阳市汉江流域洪水演进规律,详细划分区间径流预报节点,科学应用降雨径流预报,适时优化产汇流参数,构建基于数字孪生流域、数字孪生水利工程体系的上下游联合预报调度系统是进一步做好襄阳市汉江流域洪水预报工作的重要手段。

       

      Abstract: Starting from the three aspects of rain, water and hydrological monitoring and forecasting, an API model and synthetic flow method are used to carry out flood forecasting for the 2023 autumn flood in the Hanjiang River Basin in Xiangyang City, Hubei Province. The flood composition and flow superposition synthesis principle of the Hanjiang River Basin in Xiangyang City, the method of determining the current time of flood peak, and the method of calculating the flood peak water level of Xiangyang Station are summarized. In view of the problems found in the review analysis, such as large runoff prediction error, insufficient water conservancy project scheduling information, and disordered water level flow relationship, it is proposed to master the flood evolution law of the Hanjiang River Basin in Xiangyang City, divide the interval runoff prediction node in detail, scientifically apply rainfall runoff forecasting, optimize production confluence parameters in time, and build an upstream and downstream joint forecasting and scheduling system based on digital twin basin and digital twin water conservancy engineering systems, which is an important means to further do a good job in flood forecasting in the Hanjiang River Basin in Xiangyang City.

       

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