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    曹彪,刘敏杰,余其鹰,等. 基于PSO-TCN深度学习模型的新疆台兰河流域洪水预报研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(2):74−80. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024331
    引用本文: 曹彪,刘敏杰,余其鹰,等. 基于PSO-TCN深度学习模型的新疆台兰河流域洪水预报研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱,2025,35(2):74−80. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024331
    CAO Biao,LIU Minjie,YU Qiying,et al.Research on flood forecasting in Tailan Watershed of Xinjiang based on PSO-TCN deep learning model[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(2):74−80. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024331
    Citation: CAO Biao,LIU Minjie,YU Qiying,et al.Research on flood forecasting in Tailan Watershed of Xinjiang based on PSO-TCN deep learning model[J].China Flood & Drought Management,2025,35(2):74−80. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2024331

    基于PSO-TCN深度学习模型的新疆台兰河流域洪水预报研究

    Research on flood forecasting in Tailan Watershed of Xinjiang based on PSO-TCN deep learning model

    • 摘要: 准确的超前洪水预报有利于提前规划流域防洪措施。通过耦合粒子群算法(PSO)和时间卷积神经网络(TCN)构建新疆台兰河流域PSO-TCN洪水预报模型,并基于台兰河流域1960—2014年实测降雨径流资料,对50场历史洪水进行了模型测试。结果表明,相同预见期条件下,PSO-TCN模型预报洪水过程纳什效率系数(NSE)更高、均方根误差(RMSE)和洪峰相对误差(RE)更低,PSO-TCN洪水预报模型在台兰河流域具有更好的适用性和鲁棒性。当预见期超过5 h,PSO-TCN模型预报洪峰相对误差仍会超过20%,未来有望融合洪水过程发生机理,进一步提高深度学习模型在洪水预报应用中的泛化能力。研究成果可为流域洪水预报计算提供参考。

       

      Abstract: Accurate flood forecasting in advince is beneficial for planning flood measures in watersheds. In this study, a PSO-TCN (Particle Swarm Optimization-Temporal Convolutional Networks) flood forecasting model for the Tailan watershed in Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region was constructed by coupling the Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO) algorithm and the Temporal Convolutional Networks (TCN) algorithm. The model was tested using 50 historical flood events, based on observed rainfall-runoff data from 1960 to 2014 in the Tailing watershed. The results showed that under the same lead time conditions, the PSO-TCN model exhibited higher Nash efficiency coefficient, lower root mean square error, and lower relative peak error in flood forecasting. The PSO-TCN flood forecasting model demonstrated better applicability and robustness in the Tailan watershed. However, when the lead time exceeded 5 hours, the relative peak error of the PSO-TCN model still exceeded 20%. In the future, it is expected to integrate the mechanism of flood occurrence process to further improve the generalization ability of deep learning models in flood forecasting. The research results can provide reference for the calculation methods of flood forecasting in watersheds.

       

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