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    基于CMIP6模式的四川汶川县寿溪河未来洪水过程模拟预测

    Simulation and prediction of future flood processes in Shouxi River, Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province based on CMIP6 model

    • 摘要: 基于降尺度后的第六次国际耦合模式比较计划(Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6,CMIP6)中全球气候模式数据集BCC-CSM2-MR,选取4种强迫情景日尺度降雨数据,分析四川汶川县未来降雨时空分布特征,并模拟寿溪河流域未来典型洪水过程。结果表明:偏差校正后的降雨数据与观测数据差异较小,能够展示未来降雨变化特征。4种强迫情景的未来降雨均呈现增加趋势,SSP3-7.0情景下的降雨波动最为剧烈,而SSP1-2.6情景下的降雨呈现稳定上升趋势,暴雨中心位于汶川县东南部。未来汶川县降雨空间格局与历史相似,4种情景未来近期(2015—2050年)和未来远期(2051—2100年)多年平均日降雨量均有增大,且降雨量大于3.6 mm的区域面积扩大。SSP3-7.0情景寿溪河流域洪水洪峰流量最大,超过100年一遇设计标准;寿溪河流域洪水上涨迅猛,汇流时间短,洪峰尖锐,峰值持续时间短;洪水上涨历时12~15 h,洪水上涨率范围为0.16~0.43 m3/s2;洪水消退缓慢,消退率范围为0.02~0.06 m3/s2。研究成果可为四川汶川县寿溪河流域未来洪水灾害防治提供参考依据。

       

      Abstract: Based on the global climate model dataset BCC-CSM2-MR from the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) after downscaling, four forced scenario daily scale rainfall data were selected to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of future rainfall in Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province, and simulate typical flood processes in the Shouxi River Basin in the future. The results indicate that the deviation corrected rainfall data has little difference from the observed data and can demonstrate the characteristics of future rainfall changes. The future rainfall of the four forcing scenarios shows an increasing trend, and the rainfall fluctuation under SSP3-7.0 scenario is the most severe, while the rainfall under SSP1- 2.6 scenario shows a stable upward trend, and the rainstorm center is located in the southeast of Wenchuan County. The future spatial pattern of rainfall in Wenchuan County is similar to history, with an increase in the average daily rainfall for both the near future (2015-2050) and the long term (2051-2100) in all four scenarios, and an expansion of the area with rainfall greater than 3.6 mm. SSP3-7.0 scenario has the highest peak flood discharge in the Shouxi River Basin, exceeding the design standard of a 100 year return period; The floods in the Shouxi River Basin have risen rapidly, with short convergence time, sharp peak, and short duration of peak; The duration of flood rise is 12~15 hours, and the range of flood rise rate is 0.16~0.43 m3/s2; The flood recedes slowly, with a subsidence rate ranging from 0.02 to 0.06 m3/s2. The research results can provide reference for future flood disaster prevention and control in the Shouxi River Basin of Wenchuan County, Sichuan Province.

       

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