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    1322—2021年滇中地区干旱灾害特征分析

    Analysis of drought disaster characteristics in Central Yunnan Region from 1322 to 2021

    • 摘要: 研究历史时期干旱灾害特征对科学制定中长期抗旱减灾方案、优化区域水网工程布局都具有重要的指导意义。基于历史文献中的干旱灾害记录,重建滇中地区1322—2021年干旱灾害等级序列,采用小波分析等方法分析700 a滇中地区干旱灾害的特征。结果表明滇中地区旱灾具有易发性、阶段性、季节性和周期性:1322—2021年,滇中地区有记录的旱灾366次,平均每2 a发生1次,近百年来旱灾发生频次显著增加,“两年一小旱,三年一大旱”;在低纬高原独特气候、地形条件的共同影响下,旱灾具有明显的季节性,发生时间以春、夏2季为主,且春夏连旱较多;小波分析显示滇中地区旱灾等级序列存在365 a的主周期,同时还存在明显的44 a、135 a左右的年代际周期和5 a、10 a左右的年际周期,可为滇中地区干旱预报提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: The characterization of drought disasters in Central Yunnan Region at multi-century scale is of great significance to formulate the medium-and long-term plan of drought prevention and optimize the layout of regional water network. Based on the drought disaster records in historical documents, reconstructing the sequence of drought disasters in the Central Yunnan Region during the period from 1322 to 2021, and analyzing the characteristics of drought disasters in the Central Yunnan Region in recent 700 years by using wavelet analysis. The results show that Central Yunnan Region drought disasters are prone, phased, seasonal and cyclical, as follows: 366 Central Yunnan Region drought disasters were recorded in historical documents during the 700-year period from 1322 to 2021, with an average of one drought every two years. The frequency of drought disasters increased significantly in the last hundred years, with one mild drought every two years and one severe drought every three years. Under the combined influence of the unique climate and complex terrain conditions, drought disasters occurred seasonally in the low-latitude plateau, mainly in spring and summer, and there are more droughts in spring and summer. The wavelet analysis shows that the drought sequence in the Central Yunnan Region has a main cycle of 365 years, and there are also obvious interdecadal cycles of 44 years and 135 years and interannual cycles of 5 years and 10 years, which can provide scientific basis for Central Yunnan Region drought forecasting.

       

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