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    陈建勇. 基于改进LSTM模型的中小型水库入库径流模拟研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(6): 31-36. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025108
    引用本文: 陈建勇. 基于改进LSTM模型的中小型水库入库径流模拟研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(6): 31-36. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025108
    CHEN Jianyong. Research on simulation of inflow runoff of small and medium-sized reservoirs based on improved LSTM model[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(6): 31-36. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025108
    Citation: CHEN Jianyong. Research on simulation of inflow runoff of small and medium-sized reservoirs based on improved LSTM model[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(6): 31-36. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025108

    基于改进LSTM模型的中小型水库入库径流模拟研究

    Research on simulation of inflow runoff of small and medium-sized reservoirs based on improved LSTM model

    • 摘要: 我国大部分中小型水库缺乏实测水文资料,入库径流模拟对于水文资料短缺的中小型水库的调度运行和水资源利用与管理等具有重要的意义。以降雨量、径流、蒸发、下垫面为特征参数,考虑变分模态分解(VMD),建立基于改进长短期记忆人工神经网络(LSTM)的入库日径流模拟模型,以有长期实测特征参数的湖南省浏阳河流域宝盖洞站及梅田水库站设计两种交叉策略的训练期数据集,训练期以两种数据集对改进LSTM模型进行交叉学习和训练,而后迁移至富岭水库进行入库径流模拟,并与SWAT模拟结果进行对比分析。结果表明:①采用每3 a或每12 a进行交叉训练并验证了VMD-LSTM模型的模拟精度,前者的纳什效率系数达到了0.914,比后者略高;②基于VMD-LSTM模拟的富岭水库入库径流过程与SWAT模拟结果相当,相关性系数为0.905。基于VMD-LSTM的径流模拟模型能够有效学习流域产汇流特征,可为无资料的中小型水库的入库径流模拟及预报提供有效方法。

       

      Abstract: Most of China's small and medium-sized reservoirs lack measured hydrological data, and simulating inflow is of great significance for the operation, water resource utilization, and management of small and medium-sized reservoirs with scarce hydrological data. Taking rainfall, runoff, evaporation, and underlying surface as characteristic parameters, considering variational mode decomposition (VMD), a simulation model of daily inflow based on improved long short-term memory artificial neural network (LSTM) is established. Two cross strategy training datasets are designed for Baogaidong Station and Meitian Reservoir Station in Liuyang River Basin, Hunan Province, which have long-term measured characteristic parameters. During the training period, the improved LSTM model is cross learned and trained on the two datasets, and then transferred to Fuling Reservoir for inflow runoff simulation, and compared and analyzed with SWAT simulation results. The results showed that: ①The simulation accuracy of the VMD-LSTM model was verified by cross training every 3 years or every 12 years, and the Nash efficiency coefficient of the former reached 0.914, slightly higher than that of the latter; ②The inflow process of Fuling Reservoir based on VMD-LSTM simulation is comparable to the SWAT simulation results, with a correlation coefficient of 0.905. The runoff simulation model based on VMD-LSTM can effectively learn the characteristics of watershed runoff and can provide an effective method for simulating and predicting the inflow of small and medium-sized reservoirs without data.

       

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