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    基于旱涝急转指数的沂沭河流域汛期旱涝急转特征分析

    Analysis of the characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation in the Yishu River Basin during the flood season based on the drought-flood abrupt alternation index

    • 摘要: 旱涝急转具有突发性强、破坏性大的特点,对社会经济造成严重影响,深入研究分析旱涝急转现象的时空变化特征,对于制定有效的防灾减灾策略具有重要意义。利用沂沭河流域17个水文站1990—2024年的降雨水文数据,构建不同尺度的旱涝急转指数,结合Mann-Kendall趋势检验、重标极差分析、Pettitt突变检验及Morlet小波分析,检测旱涝急转指数(Drought-flood Abrupt Alternation Index,DFAI)的长期趋势变化,分析旱涝急转指数的持久性特征,识别旱涝急转指数的时间序列突变点,揭示旱涝急转指数的周期性变化特征。对流域汛期旱涝急转特征进行了深入探讨,研究发现在未来一段时间内,长周期中“涝转旱”现象占主导地位,短周期中6—7月和8—9月的“涝转旱”现象呈上升趋势,7—8月则“旱转涝”现象逐渐增多。

       

      Abstract: Using rainfall hydrological data from 17 hydrological stations in the Yishu River Basin from 1990 to 2024, different scales of drought flood transition indices were constructed. Mann Kendall trend test, rescaling range analysis, Pettitt mutation test, and Morlet wavelet analysis were combined to detect the long-term trend changes of drought flood transition indices, analyze the persistence characteristics of drought flood transition indices, identify the time series mutation points of drought flood transition indices, and reveal the periodic variation characteristics of drought flood transition indices. An in-depth exploration was conducted on the characteristics of sudden changes in drought and flood during the flood season in the watershed. Research has found that in the future, the phenomenon of "flood to drought" will dominate in long cycles, while in short cycles, the phenomenon of "flood to drought" will increase in June to July and August to September, and gradually increase in July to August.

       

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