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    许泽星, 刘荣华, 孙东亚, 王协康. 考虑泥沙影响的山洪灾害预警方法研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(6): 11-19. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025280
    引用本文: 许泽星, 刘荣华, 孙东亚, 王协康. 考虑泥沙影响的山洪灾害预警方法研究[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(6): 11-19. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025280
    XU Zexing, LIU Ronghua, SUN Dongya, WANG Xiekang. Research on flash flood warning methods considering sediment effects[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(6): 11-19. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025280
    Citation: XU Zexing, LIU Ronghua, SUN Dongya, WANG Xiekang. Research on flash flood warning methods considering sediment effects[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(6): 11-19. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025280

    考虑泥沙影响的山洪灾害预警方法研究

    Research on flash flood warning methods considering sediment effects

    • 摘要: 山区地形地貌复杂,暴雨诱发的山洪常挟带大量泥沙,泥沙运动过程显著改变洪水演进特性。传统暴雨山洪预警多基于降雨—径流—水位关系构建,未充分考虑泥沙因素影响,导致预警时效不足,无法满足山地区域防灾减灾实际需求。以四川汉源县马烈乡2024年7月20日山洪灾害事件为典型案例,采用模块化分布式水文模型(Modular Distributed Hydrological Model,MDHM)耦合泥沙输移模块,系统模拟实测降雨条件下的山洪演进过程并进行预警时效分析。基于现场调查与模拟结果,建立了考虑泥沙淤床效应及水位陡涨率的山洪洪水灾害、山洪水沙灾害、山洪泥石流灾害分区预警方法。通过比较传统山洪洪水预警与考虑泥沙影响的分区预警效果,结果表明考虑泥沙影响的分区预警指标能显著提高山洪灾害预警的准确性和时效性,可为山区多沙流域山洪灾害预警防御提供技术支撑与决策依据

       

      Abstract: In mountainous areas with complex terrain, flash floods triggered by heavy rainfall often carry large amounts of sediment. The process of sediment transport significantly changes the characteristics of flood routing. Traditional flash flood warning systems primarily based on rainfall-runoff-water level relationships fail to adequately consider sediment factors, resulting in limited warning timeliness that cannot meet the practical demands of disaster prevention in mountainous regions. Taking the July 20, 2024 flash flood disaster in Malie Township, Hanyuan County, Sichuan Province as a typical case, a sediment transport module coupled with Modular Distributed Hydrological Model (MDHM) was used to simulate the evolution process of flash floods under measured rainfall conditions and conduct timely warning analysis. Based on on-site investigation and simulation results, a zoning warning method for mountain flood disasters, mountain flood water and sand disasters, and mountain flood debris flow disasters considering sediment deposition effects and steep water level rise rates has been established. Through comparative analysis of traditional flash flood warning versus zonation-based warning considering sediment effects, results indicate that considering the influence of sediment on zoning warning indicators can significantly improve the accuracy and timeliness of flash flood disaster warning, providing technical support and decision-making basis for flash flood disaster prevention in sediment-rich mountainous watersheds.

       

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