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    刘荣华, 王雪梅, 刘晓婉, 陈鹏帅, 刘潇. 暴雨山洪模拟与预警模型研究进展与展望[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(6): 1-10. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025281
    引用本文: 刘荣华, 王雪梅, 刘晓婉, 陈鹏帅, 刘潇. 暴雨山洪模拟与预警模型研究进展与展望[J]. 中国防汛抗旱, 2025, 35(6): 1-10. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025281
    LIU Ronghua, WANG Xuemei, LIU Xiaowan, CHEN Pengshuai, LIU Xiao. Research progress and prospects of flash flood simulation and warning models[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(6): 1-10. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025281
    Citation: LIU Ronghua, WANG Xuemei, LIU Xiaowan, CHEN Pengshuai, LIU Xiao. Research progress and prospects of flash flood simulation and warning models[J]. China Flood & Drought Management, 2025, 35(6): 1-10. DOI: 10.16867/j.issn.1673-9264.2025281

    暴雨山洪模拟与预警模型研究进展与展望

    Research progress and prospects of flash flood simulation and warning models

    • 摘要: 山洪灾害是我国致人伤亡最严重的自然灾害之一,山洪灾害防御也是目前防洪减灾最突出的短板和薄弱环节,精确模拟与科学预警是有效减轻山洪灾害损失的关键。系统梳理了暴雨山洪模拟与预警模型的研究进展,分析了水文模型、水动力—水沙模型等物理机理模型与机器学习等数据驱动模型,以及气象风险预警、临界雨量预警、水位(流量)预警等预警模式的应用现状及发展前景。针对山洪模拟与预警研究中面临的物理—数据融合、精细化预警体系构建、复合灾害链预警、全球山洪大模型等关键挑战,提出今后山洪模拟与预警技术的发展方向。

       

      Abstract: Flash floods constitute the most fatal natural disasters in China, with their prevention representing the most critical deficiency in current flood risk management frameworks. Accurate simulation and scientific early warning are key to effectively reducing flash flood disaster losses. This paper systematically reviews the research progress in flash flood simulation and warning models, analyzing the current application status and development prospects of physical mechanism models such as hydrological models and hydrodynamic-sediment models, data-driven models such as machine learning, as well as warning modes including meteorological risk warning, critical rainfall warning, and water level (discharge) warning. In response to key challenges faced in flash flood simulation and warning research, including physics-data fusion, construction of refined warning systems, compound disaster chain warning, and global flash flood mega-models, this paper proposes future development directions for flash flood simulation and warning technologies.

       

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