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    基于降水与土壤水指标综合判别的中国干旱事件演变特征

    Evolution characteristics of drought events in China based on comprehensive discrimination of precipitation and soil water indicators

    • 摘要: 精准识别我国日渐加剧的干旱事件的时空变化特征,对防灾减灾和农业生产有重要意义。提出了基于降水和土壤水指标综合判别干旱事件的方法,采用1961—2020年逐日气象观测的中国地面降水格点数据集(V2.0)和适用于中国的全球土壤水数据集GLDAS NOAH025,分代际、季节对中国干旱事件的频次、笼罩面积占比和强度等变化特征进行分析。结果表明,1961—2020年中国干旱事件频次为0~154次,主要发生在中国中部、东南部和西北部,干旱频次在51~100次的笼罩面积占比最大(50.5%),干旱强度在中度及以下。各代际干旱事件频次主要集中在6~15次,干旱强度均在中度及以下;随着代际推移,干旱事件的频次和强度总体呈现出波动增加趋势。夏季干旱频次最高,最高年均干旱频次达0.97次;干旱强度总体呈现出春季>夏季>冬季>秋季规律。研究结果可为我国干旱灾害风险分析和抗旱减灾措施制定提供科学依据。

       

      Abstract: It is of great significance to accurately identify the spatiotemporal characteristics of the increasingly severe drought events in China for disaster mitigation and agricultural production. This study proposes a method for determination of drought events based on comprehensive indicators (precipitation and soil water). Based on the Chinese daily surface precipitation grid dataset (V2.0) and the global soil water dataset GLDAS NOAH025 from 1961 to 2020, the frequency, covered area proportion, and intensity of drought events in China were analyzed by decade and season. The results reveal that the total frequency of drought events in China from 1961 to 2020 ranged from 0 to 154 times, mainly occurred in the center, southeast and northwest of China, with covered area proportion of 50.5% for the highest drought frequency between 51 and 100 times. The drought intensity was moderate or below. The frequency of drought events in each decade was mainly concentrated between 6 to 15 times, and the intensity of drought is moderate or below. Over time, the frequency and intensity of drought events in China have shown an overall increasing trend. The frequency of drought events was the highest in summer, with an average annual drought frequency of 0.97 times. The intensity of drought events increased in the order of spring > summer > winter > autumn. The findings can provide scientific basis for risk analysis and mitigation of drought in China.

       

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