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    山洪灾害预警模型改进与效果评估

    Improvement and discussion of flash flood early warning systems

    • 摘要: 针对当前山洪灾害预警空报率偏高、精准度偏低的问题,在现有山洪灾害预警模型基础上提出一套系统性改进方案。该方案以差异化分类预警为核心,依据防治对象上游流域特征及其山洪风险来源,精准匹配单站预警、多站预警、面雨量预警及流量预警方法,并辅以村庄与预警依据之间的关联规则优化和基于村庄防洪能力的预警阈值复核修订。该方案在福建省的试点应用表现出明显的优势:对620个村庄的预警效果评估显示,在不漏报的前提下,预警空报率降低11.5%~85.7%,其中2024年、2025年典型强降雨场次危险(立即转移)与警戒(准备转移)等级的预警总量降幅普遍超50%;通过格头村的案例,验证了改进的分类预警机制能更精准适配不同防治对象类型与山洪风险来源。实践表明,改进的预警方法能有效提升预警精准性、减少预警空报,节约应急资源,有助于增强预警公信力,为全国山洪灾害监测预警系统升级提供可复制推广的技术路径和实践经验。

       

      Abstract: In response to the current problem of high false alarm rate and low accuracy in flash flood warning, a systematic improvement plan is proposed based on the existing flash flood warning model. This plan focuses on differentiated classification warning, and accurately matches single station warning, multi station warning, surface rainfall warning, and flow warning methods based on the characteristics of the upstream watershed of the prevention and control object and its sources of flash flood risk. It is supplemented by optimizing the association rules between villages and warning criteria, and revising the warning network value based on the flood control capacity of villages. The pilot application of this plan in Fujian Province has shown significant advantages: the evaluation of the warning effect on 620 villages shows that the false warning rate has been reduced by 11.5% to 85.7% without missing reports. Among them, the total warning volume of typical heavy rainfall events in 2024 and 2025, which are dangerous (immediate transfer) and alert (preparation for transfer) levels, has generally decreased by more than 50%. Through the case of Getou Village, it has been verified that the improved classification warning mechanism can more accurately adapt to different types of prevention and control objects and sources of flash flood risks. Practice has shown that improved warning methods can effectively improve warning accuracy, reduce warning false alarms, save emergency resources, enhance warning credibility, and provide replicable and promotable technical paths and practical experience for upgrading the national flash flood monitoring and warning system.

       

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