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    分阶段优先序约束下豫北多水源抗旱互济保供效应与时空权衡

    Water supply guarantee effects and spatiotemporal trade-offs of multi-source drought relief water sharing under staged priority constraints in Northern Henan

    • 摘要: 为评估持续干旱下多水源互济共享的保供效果及其伴生代价,以豫北6市32个县级供需单元为对象,将分阶段供需主导规则转化为严格优先序、累计保障层次和水源切换硬约束,以供水量为决策变量构建混合整数线性规划(MILP)配置推演模型,对比分析引黄水共享(S1)、增加水库水共享(S2)与叠加南水北调水共享(S3)的保供效应。结果表明:目标缺水率依次为12.11%、9.02%和8.96%,S3仅追加减缺264.80万m3,减缺效果在引入水库水后已基本饱和;严格优先序硬约束诱发了占目标缺水65.83%~79.26%的规则性缺水,其中农业类用水承担55.25%~61.32%,缺水高度集中于前5个单元(占58%~72%)。宏观减缺伴生时空与层级权衡:生活刚性满足率升至98.78%,但S3在削减特旱期缺水的同时引发中旱期缺水反弹,单旬峰值后移,刚弹性与弹性层保障率回落。松弛实验表明,取消排序仅能释放约30.67%的目标缺水,其余仍受物理可达性约束。市域共享拓扑在提升全域供水效率的同时存在时空演进与层级均衡的内在权衡,抗旱应急管理须协同校核关键用水户与脆弱时段的保供底线。

       

      Abstract: To evaluate the guarantee efficacy and inherent trade-offs of multi-source water sharing during sustained drought, a MILP allocation model was established for 32 county-level units in 6 cities in northern Henan, formulating staged coupling rules into preemptive priorities, cumulative tiers, and source-switching constraints with water deliveries as decision variables.Three scenarios—sharing Yellow River water(S1), adding reservoir water(S2), and further sharing South-to-North Water Diversion water(S3) —were evaluated. Results show that target shortage rates drop from 12.11% to 9.02% and 8.96%. Scenario S3 contributes an incremental shortage reduction of merely 2.65×106m3, indicating that deficit-reduction gains saturate after incorporating reservoir water.Strict priority constraints induce rule-based shortages accounting for 65.83%~79.26% of the total deficit, with agriculture absorbing 55.25%~61.32% and the top five units concentrating 58%~72% of the deficit. Regional mitigation induces spatiotemporal and tier-level trade-offs: while essential domestic guarantees rise to 98.78%, S3 triggers a rebound in mid-drought shortages, postpones the peak dekad, and lowers semi-elastic and elastic guarantee rates. Relaxed experiments demonstrate that eliminating priority orders releases only 30.67% of target shortages, leaving the remainder limited by physical reachability. Enhancing intra-city sharing topologies entails trade-offs between macroscopic efficiency and spatiotemporal balance, requiring verification of key users and critical periods in drought relief management.

       

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